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David Joerg's avatar

Great piece, Charlie. I agree with everything except the conclusion, which I don't see as being supported. Yes, juniors will be needed to do the things you say. However, how many such juniors will be needed? I could see something like 25% of juniors being employed in the capacities you describe, both for reasons of skill/aptitude match and because a single such junior can do the work of many more — and the ability to pay for such juniors will not be great.

For the rest who lack the skills or cannot get into a sufficiently-high-value seat, they'll have to find something else to do, and I don't expect it'll be pretty.

In 2023, the latest number available, the full-time employment rate for bachelor’s degree graduates (within six months of finishing) is around 57%. Not a number any of us are happy about, I'm sure. Over the preceding ten years the high point was 59%. What will that number be in 5 years? 10 years? My wild-guess-gun-to-head-right-now is 45% and then 35%.

https://chatgpt.com/share/685477eb-d014-8007-8f61-ad1eb33bfab4

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